However, by August to October, their outlook increases the probability of El Niño to 61%, with neutral conditions dipping to 35% and La Niña at 4%. CPC and Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), which was published on March 9, gives roughly equal chances of El Niño and neutral conditions between June and August. The latest official outlook from the U.S. This transition to a warmer and drier climate would increase the risk of grass and bushfires, and possibly cause the early stages of drought. If neutral conditions persist into the second half of 2023, this will mean the Pacific continues to have little influence on Australia’s weather.īut if the Pacific does flip to El Niño later this year, it will increase the likelihood of below average rain, and above average temperatures, in large areas of Australia. Looking further ahead, seasonal forecast models suggest that the Pacific Ocean will either remain in a neutral state, or transition into El Niño, during the Southern Hemisphere winter or spring. This means the Pacific Ocean will not be in a La Niña or El Niño phase and should not have a strong influence on the weather in Australia or any other parts of the world. But with the door now closing on La Niña, all eyes are looking to what will happen next in the Pacific Ocean.įollowing La Niña, the Pacific is expected to remain in a neutral state through the rest of the Southern Hemisphere’s autumn. The end of La Niña will undoubtedly come as welcome news to people in Australia that were adversely impacted by rain, flooding and mould in the last few years. Image: Monthly sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during February 2023, showing a neutral pattern (neither La Nina nor El Niño).
With the Bureau expected to follow suite with a similar declaration later this month, this ends La Niña’s three-year reign that produced record-breaking rain and flooding parts of Australia between 20. CPC issued a statement overnight declaring that “La Niña has ended and ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer 2023.” While Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology is yet to officially announce the end of La Niña, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has declared that the 2022/23 La Niña has ended, paving the way for a return of drier and warmer weather in Australia. Today, 11:53AM UTC La Nina is over, declares US Climate Prediction Center However, storms are possible in Brisbane on both Saturday and Sunday, so be sure to stay up to date with the latest warnings across the weekend.
There is still some model uncertainty regarding how the weekend’s weather will play out in the state’s southeast.Īt this stage, Saturday is more likely to feature rain than storms in Brisbane and Sunday has a better chance of severe thunderstorm activity. Image: Forecast accumulated rain between 10am AEST on Friday and 10pm AEST on Sunday, according to the ECMWF-HRES model. The map below shows how much rain is being predicted by one computer model between 10am AEST Friday and Sunday night. This will include severe storms in multiple districts on both Saturday and Sunday. This tropical moisture is now spreading further south and will fuel wet and stormy weather over parts of a large area of western, central and southern Qld this weekend, including the state’s southeast. Get the brollies ready Brisbane because this weekend is going to be wet and might even feature a few severe thunderstorms in southeast Qld.Įarlier this week we mentioned a tropical low that was causing thick clouds and heavy rain over central and northwestern parts of Qld.
Today, 4:17PM UTC Brisbane bracing for weekend rain and storms
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